“Moody’s Has Announced Its Economic Growth Forecast for Azerbaijan”
Azerbaijan’s economy maintained positive growth in 2025 despite a decline in global oil prices.
According to Startup.az, citing Moody’s Ratings, the pace of growth has weakened compared to 2024. During the first eleven months of the year, real GDP increased by 1.6% year-on-year, and full-year growth is expected to be around 1.5%. This performance reflects the resilience of the non-oil sector, which has partially offset the ongoing contraction in the oil and gas sector.
Moody’s notes that softer oil prices and rising expenditures are expected to reduce the consolidated fiscal surplus—including the Nakhchivan region, social funds, and SOFAZ—to approximately 2.4% of GDP in 2025, down from 4% in 2024. Amid accelerated spending on infrastructure, reconstruction, and social programs, a slight budget deficit may emerge in the state budget.