ING has lowered its inflation forecast for Azerbaijan for 2026
The Netherlands’ largest banking group, ING Group, forecasts that average annual inflation in Azerbaijan will stand at 5.3% in 2026 and 8.9% in 2027.
Startup.az reports, citing updated data from ING, that compared to the previous forecast, expectations for the current year have been lowered by 0.4 percentage points, while the forecast for 2027 remains unchanged.
According to ING, inflation in Azerbaijan amounted to 5.6% in 2025.
Bank analysts expect average annual inflation to be 5.2% in the first quarter of 2026 (previously 5.7%), 5.4% in the second quarter (previously 5.9%), 5.3% in the third quarter (previously 5.7%), and 5.5% in the fourth quarter (previously 5.7%).
According to forecasts by the Ministry of Economy, average annual inflation in the country is expected to be 5.4% this year, 4.8% in 2026, and 4.5% in 2027. Based on the latest forecasts of the Central Bank of Azerbaijan (October 2025), annual inflation is projected at 6% in 2025 and approximately 5.7% in 2026.
The United Nations, in turn, forecasts inflation in Azerbaijan at 3.6% this year and 3.1% next year, while the World Bank expects average annual inflation of 2.3% in Azerbaijan in 2025–2026.
The Asian Development Bank projects average annual inflation of 4.2% in 2025 and 3.5% in 2026.
International rating agency Moody’s forecasts average annual inflation in Azerbaijan at 4% this year and 3% next year. Fitch Ratings expects inflation to be 5.3% in 2025 and 4.6% in 2026, while Fitch Solutions forecasts 5.7% in 2025, 5.5% in 2026, and 4.8% in 2027.
For reference, average annual inflation in Azerbaijan stood at 2.2% in 2024, while inflation for January–November 2025 amounted to 5.7%.